Learning to love The Bomb

For the past few days we have been bombarded by a revelation from our “intelligence” agency that Iran has another facility that can be used to develop a nuclear weapon. As expected, Iran has denied this facility has aggressive intents and claiming is has only peaceful purposes. Coupled with this denial is an almost schoolboy attitude from Teheran suggesting, “So what; we’re a free country; you can’t tell us what to do”. On the other side we have “experts” suggesting that a military option to destroy this facility might be a reasonable response to this “provocation”. Coming from nations who already have nuclear weapons our schoolboys are in effect saying, “You are not like us. We can be trusted with this power – you can’t.” Some older folks with long memories might find certain hypocrisy in this position.

There is a very good reason why we call nuclear bombs “weapons of mass destruction”. Other military actions can kill more people (for example, mass firebombing a city) but a nuclear bomb concentrates that force in a single package. A few such bombs can change the course of history. A few bombs change the way nations must treat each other. We see this in the relations between the West and Russia during the 50 years of “Cold War”. We see it in the delicate relations between India and Pakistan even in the face of the recent massacre in Mumbai by terrorists based in Pakistan. At the heart of this delicacy is a belief that nuclear weapons bring the potential for Mutual Assured Destruction – if you destroy me then rest assured that I will also destroy you.

We conveniently forget that Israel already has The Bomb. Israel neither admits nor denies that it has nuclear weapons but their possession is a generally regarded “public secret”. The US has declassified documents indicating it was convinced Israel had nuclear weapons as early as 1975. There are no public records stating how many warheads Israel has now but it is likely to be a significant number. Israel also has a viable delivery system. The Israeli air force is justifiably considered one of the best in the world. Dropping a nuclear bomb in the general vicinity of Teheran, Qom, Shiraz or any other large Iranian town is definitely within their capabilities. I have no doubt that this simple fact has not escaped the attention of Iran’s president, its religious leaders and the majority of its people.

It was widely reported that Nikita Khrushchev threatened to “bury the US”. We cleverly recognized this as hyperbole and continued diplomatic relations with the Russian Premier. We seem incapable of recognizing hyperbole in speeches by Middle Eastern leaders. This is unfortunate because hyperbole is common in those cultures – surely we have not forgotten the “mother of all battles”?

Is Iran seeking a bomb? I expect it is; not because it wants to obliterate Israel but because they probably believe it will bring a level of security and new respect. Both of these are likely to be illusory but if the only policy we have is to isolate Iran then it is not too surprising that they continue act like defiant schoolboys. As for Israel’s security, perhaps they need to recall a key concept from the movie Dr. Strangelove. The whole point - of the doomsday machine is lost...if you keep it a secret! WHY DIDN'T YOU TELL THE WORLD?!

thoughts on Veterans' Day

Tomorrow is the anniversary of the armistice that ended the horrors of World War One. At the eleventh hour of the eleventh day of the eleventh month the guns fell silent. Since then, November 11 has been set aside as a day to remember all those who gave their lives in the armed forces for our freedoms. In UK, people mark that day by wearing a red paper poppy. (The poppy thrived in the soil between the trenches of Flanders that was torn up by bombs and shells. It was adopted as the symbol of the horrors of War.) That tradition is still strong. On the way to the airport in Tokyo today I saw several westerners wearing poppies in the lapels of their business suits. Here in the US we will celebrate “Veterans Day” to remember those who served for our freedoms. There will be ceremonies and maybe even parades, but often the focus will be on “past” wars. It is easy to remember the “acceptable” conflicts of WW II, Korea, and nowadays, even Viet Nam. Those wars are safe. The conflict has ended, the pain is past and the horrors are safely confined to movies and television documentaries.That is not true of the present conflict in Iraq.

On a recent visit to Calgary I noticed that the flags at the airport were flying at half-staff. It was not a special holiday and the newspapers had no reports that an eminent citizen had died. The reason was that a member of the Canadian armed services who had been killed overseas was returning home. I confess that I thought this was a “nice” gesture and continued on my way. Tonight I watched a TV report about how the ordinary Canadian people pay their respects to Canada’s fallen. The article made me compare the way Canada acknowledges its fallen with the air of secrecy that surrounds the sacrifice by the US forces. Here, we are regularly informed about numbers. The trouble is (or maybe the point is) we are immune to numbers. An article that four soldiers were killed by an IED evokes no response. The sight of those four bodies returning home, four flag draped coffins, grieving families, distraught children and the effect this has on four different communities might make us appreciate the full cost of this futile war.

We rightly ridicule government attempts to stifle news and feed propaganda to its citizens. When that is our government’s policy and it also negates the full sacrifice of our fallen, it is unconscionable.

I memorized this verse at school in the 50s when the horrors of WWII were still visible in Europe. My teacher was an "old" lady. She probably shared in the sacrifices of WW I. The thoughts it expresses are still applicable to the heroes of today.

They shall not grow old as we that are left grow old,
Age shall not weary them, nor the years condemn
At the going down of the sun and in the morning
We will remember them.

“For the Fallen”
Laurence Binyon (1869-1943),

Religious education

Back in the Dark Ages when I attended the Boys’ Model School in Northern Ireland, the law required pupils be taught two specific subjects. They were subjects that are not normally required for a good education in USA today - Religious Education and Physical Education. I thought that the “Troubles” in Northern Ireland and the development of modern curricula would cause a retreat from teaching religion to all pupils. However, looking at the current website for the Boys’ Model, I was very surprised to read, “The legal requirement is for every pupil to study RE, unless parents request his withdrawal.”

The school webpage covering Religious Education makes some interesting claims for the subject. These include “a substantial contribution to the spiritual, moral, cultural, intellectual and physical development of all pupils.” Certainly much of Western culture and the basis for our ethical systems tie directly back to our religious heritage. Still, I wonder about that claim for “physical development.” Maybe the author was thinking about the admonitions against strong drink and immorality.

The webpage notes the goals of the RE course. They include the usual communication, thinking skills and personal capabilities. They also include:

• a knowledge of where religious and moral beliefs come from;
• an awareness of Christian teaching;
• a sensitivity towards the beliefs of others;
• an ability to think and judge about morality;
• an awareness of self.
  

Those seem to be pretty basic skills for anyone growing up in today’s world. The course includes an “Introduction to Judaism & Islam” so the content looks as relevant as the latest news. Given our concerns about moral, ethical and business standards, I wonder if this is another small example of “How the Irish Saved Civilization”.

Harvey - Guest Blogger

We Bull Terriers are a naturally retiring breed but as I lay on the sofa with one ear cocked towards the television I became so incensed that I asked Fergus if I could post this note. The pundits on CNN suggested that some humans might choose whom to vote for based only on the color of a man’s skin. I couldn’t believe it. I don’t understand it. I thought I heard that something called the Stock Market had lost 40 percent of its value; lots of people have no jobs; others can’t afford to go the vet (sorry, doctor); and many are loosing their homes. How does chosing a President based on skin color help solve these problems? My friend Regan is different from me. She is a Grey Hound. She has colored patches and very long legs. But we get on together – even if she does always want to be the boss.

I was told that humans are more intelligent than us dogs. Now I am not so sure. Please, humans, decide the future of this country on something more important than the color of a man’s skin.

Ike - Finale

It’s been three weeks since Ike left town. Our part of Missouri City is almost normal – except that all the Bradford Pear trees have decided it is spring again and have come into flower. How one night of high winds can induce the same response as four months of winter is perplexing but the blossom adds a touch of wonder to what was an unpleasant experience.

The beach home in Galveston fared very well. Dirt marks on the garage wall indicate that the storm surge on the west of the island was about five feet above ground level – probably about eight feet above normal high tide. The dwelling area upstairs is comfortably above that level so we were spared any water damage except in the garage. Power and water were restored to our area of Sea Isle last week and we were able to power-wash the mud out of the garage. The next test will be to return the batteries to the golf cart and see if it can be restored to operation. All this is very trivial and mundane and our feelings of relief and “survivor guilt” grow each time we travel down to Galveston. During the past couple of weeks people have begun the clean-up process. Along the side of the roads in Galveston (and surprisingly along some parts of Highway 6) heaps of debris are growing. These piles of ruined fridges, sodden furniture, saturated walls and broken structures represent people’s lives, their homes and hopes for the future. I can’t imagine the heartache of seeing a lifetime of memories destroyed or the stress of dealing with insurance claims and bureaucracies - all while trying earn a living and maintain a semblance of normality. Somehow, sending $700 billion to Wall Street to try to fix a crisis caused by greed doesn’t seem to be an appropriate use of our resources. I appreciate my congressman’s fortitude in voting against the bill both times it came to the House. I only wish my senatorial representative displayed the same backbone.

And now for something different . . . . a gratuitous commercial plug. For years I have been a fan of Venezuelan rum. It has a distinctive flavor that is very different from other Caribbean products. IMHO it is infinitely superior to the mass produced liquors (especially the ones with the bat trademark) sold in most US bars and restaurants. But recently I discovered something even better. It is “hand made Texas Rum” produced near here in San Leon on Galveston Bay. Railean distillery has survived Hurricane Ike and their nectar is readily available in your local Specs store. A recent article in the Houston Chronicle describes some of the eccentric residents of San Leon and their efforts to recover after Ike. I encourage y’all to help San Leon in a practical way. Get rid of all those imported rums. Help local industry and our national economy which needs all the help it can get. Be patriotic - Drink Texas rum!

More thoughts on oil supply – and still no pictures

“Fungible” is an interesting word. The dictionary defines it as “being of such nature or kind as to be freely exchangeable or replaceable, in whole or in part, for another of like nature or kind.” Crude oil is a fungible commodity. Differences in quality affect prices and influence the best refinery for processing. But, in simple terms the world’s supply of crude oil can be considered as one large pot. Picture the producers pouring their oil into the pot and the users sitting around like kids sucking it out with straws. New discoveries make the pot bigger. Increasing demand is just those users sucking harder.

So what happens when we discover all that oil offshore that our politicians keep talking about? If the discoveries are big enough to meet our needs and we keep it to ourselves we become independent. That is a dream. More likely, discoveries will be much less than our needs. Again, if we keep that oil to ourselves we may not have to suck so hard from the communal pot. As Mr. Micawber’s economics suggested, we might achieve happiness. More likely, others will suck what we leave and there will be no change in the price of oil.

People are beginning to realize and accept that it will take five to ten years to develop any oil found in the new drilling areas. I wonder if they realize how much oil they will need to find to make any difference. This table shows some numbers taken from the data on the US Department of Energy website. I’ve selected the figures from 2007 and also those forecast for 2015 – when those “discoveries” might be arriving at the pump.

This table only shows three countries – USA, India and China. I have assumed that conservation allows us to reduce our oil consumption by 10 percent in the next 7 years. I have also assumes that India and China will only increase their oil per capita consumption by 10 percent during this time. (As the people of India and China become more affluent they will rightly expect the same standards as those of the West. My assumption of their demands may be very low). Adding the daily demands of just these three countries we see that it grows from 31 million barrels in 2007 to 36 million barrels in 2015. That pot will need to grow by an extra 5 million barrels per day just to meet the needs of US, China and India.

The largest oilfield in the USA is Prudhoe Bay in Alaska. It produces about 400,000 barrels per day. The biggest oilfield in the world is the Ghawar field in Saudi Arabia. Even it only produces about 4 million barrels of oil each day. The whole of Iran produces only 4 million barrels per day. Our politicians might hope the oil industry can discover another Prudhoe Bay. It is statistically unlikely that they will find another Ghawar. The demands of people sucking from that communal oil pot are getting bigger each day. It is obvious that the solution to our (and the world’s) energy problems has to be found outside the oil industry.

Gratuitous plugs - no politics

At one time “diplomacy” was defined as discussion, persuasion and maybe even subtle coercion used to reach national goals. It required meeting and talking with people of different viewpoints and ambitions. In extremes, it was even necessary to deal with people who sought your ruin. Diplomacy was the skill of solving problems without the use of overt force. In recent years, US leaders have abandoned this traditional definition of diplomacy. Now, our top leaders revile and insult anyone who proposes to meet with people who actively oppose us and can be defined as “terrorists”. Our diplomatic skills are reduced to meeting with those who share our opinions and bombing those who don’t! But just as the decline in the value of the dollar has reduced US world economic influence, so this decline in our diplomatic skills reduces our ability to influence world events. We have lost our position of a respected leader. Our politicians now act more like loud-mouthed bullies.

I was going to continue with examples of respected past leaders who had real diplomatic skills. These leaders dealt with people who might today be called terrorists (or worse) to gain our national objectives. But why should I waste time? The blunders of our current leadership are obvious to anyone with an IQ over 85. This includes diplomacy. Instead, the rest of this epistle is a gratuitous plug for bull terriers.



In many places bull terriers get a bad rap. J’s family had bull terriers when she was a girl and they have always been an important part of our family. We currently share our life with Harvey. This photo was taken after he had a cyst removed from his neck. Harvey is a miniature white English bull terrier. He is instantly recognized by anyone who watched certain beer adverts or who shops in Target. Harvey is small in stature but he displays all the personality and character traits that make bull terriers so loved. Harvey also displays some of the other qualities that can make bull terriers so misunderstood. On the positive side, he is a loving 30-pound lap dog. He is happiest when he is cuddled up beside me watching TV. Harvey behaves just like a strong-willed child. He is precocious, disobedient and is always trying to have things his way. There is nothing in Harvey’s character to give any concern that he would hurt anyone. But, Harvey is a bull-terrier. He is built like an Abrams tank. Those 30 pounds are all solid muscle and bone. His jaws are like a clamp and his tail thrashes from side to side like a cudgel. Harvey doesn’t go around obstructions. He goes through them or shoves them aside. Harvey is like a sumo wrestler who has not learnt to control his strength. This can be a problem when he meets new people, especially young people. Small children are likely to be overwhelmed (and overturned) by his affectionate greetings. For that reason, we always keep Harvey under close control when children ask to meet him.

Harvey is the latest in a line of Bull Terriers and Pit Bulls who have shared our home. They each deserve their own entry in this blog, especially Cleopatra, a red-nosed red Pit Bull and a gentle soul. Throughout her life Cleopatra was ruled by our small Burmese cat who was only one tenth her size. Harvey, Sparky, Cleopatra, Honey and Marquis were all dogs who shared our home at different times. In their dealings with J and me, our children, the neighborhood kids and visitors, these bull terriers showed me that bad dogs are rare – even (especially?) bull terriers. When a bull terrier goes bad, the fault is almost always with the owner.

The personality and character of most bull terriers means that they are not the right dog for every family. Sensible dog lovers recognize this fact. The same statement can also be made for many other breeds – Rottweilers, German Shepherds, for example. Maybe a time is approaching when a dog license should be for a type and size of dog. Just as some people do not qualify for a firearms license, so some people should not be licensed to keep certain dogs. That may sound outrageous, but is it any more outrageous than the suggestion that diplomacy does not require we deal with those we call terrorists?

Gestures can make a difference

The Olympic Games are supposed to be a symbol of international goodwill, sportsmanship and physical rivalry. Our televisions regularly show stories of athletes who have honed their talents and won a place on the national team. These reports suggest that the “spirit of the games” is alive and well. But politics also overshadows the Olympics. The games provide a perfect venue for governments and individuals to make grand demonstrations. In 1936, Nazi Germany used the games to highlight its national and racial ideologies. During the Munich games, terrorists massacred Israeli athletes. The US government led a boycott of the Moscow Olympics to protest actions by the host nation. In 1968, two American athletes received their medals shoeless, but wearing black socks, to represent black poverty. When the national anthem was played they gave a black-power salute. The 2008 Olympic Games may well provide an opportunity for demonstrations that are as far reaching as any of these.

Not since 1936 has a country invested so much national prestige in hosting the games. Not since 1980 have the policies of a host nation caused so much controversy. The latest events in Tibet appear to be a straw that has broken the camel’s back. Already some are calling for a boycott of the games – especially the symbolic “Opening Ceremony”. These calls require a response at a personal and a national level. A spokesman for one of the presidential candidates suggested that the USA is so dependent on China to fund our deficit that we cannot afford to upset them. In that camp economic concerns trump moral considerations. For them, we are already an economic vassal of China. Another presidential candidate has declared for a boycott of the opening ceremony. The third has offered no guidance.

As a friend remarked in Sunday school last week, “We are not called to change the world but we are responsible for our own actions”. So, I shall not be participating in the 2008 Olympics. I shall not watch the television coverage and I shall not buy products from companies that support the games. I know my decisions will have absolutely no affect on China’s human rights policies or how the games evolve. But I remain a true optimist. I remember how Horiatio and his two companions held the bridge and saved Rome, how the 300 Spartans helped defeat the Persian invaders and how the defenders of the Alamo bought time for Texas. Maybe, just maybe, my little gesture will encourage others and like these photographs of two different sides of the Texas story, a gesture doomed to defeat can lead to change. Maybe also, that spokesman’s comment will awaken all the presidential candidates to our nation’s real weakness - a weakness caused because we are so indebted to foreigners that we have no freedom to act as we choose.

From "have not" to "have"

My last job with “Big Oil” was an assignment to a country not a million miles from here. For part of the time I was assigned to a site building an oil production facility. It was located about two hours drive from the nearest “large” town. For twelve months I travelled each Monday morning to the site and returned on Friday to my wife who remained in the capital. During that week I lived in a “single-wide” mobile home. This was located on a camp that dated back to days when the Seven Sisters controlled the country’s oil wealth. A high security fence enclosed a self-contained community. Within the wire were a well financed school, medical center, social club and swimming pool, supermarket, barbershop and beauty salon and even a 9-hole golf course with lighting so that oil company employees could complete their golf round without concern for the early tropical dusk. The camp had secure electric supply, treated water and mains sewage. We even had satellite TV and mobile phone service. It was remote, but not a hardship assignment.

On my drive to the construction site each morning I passed another community. This had no security fence, no supermarket, no swimming club, and no golf club. There was a few-room school but it had fewer teachers, no finance and no facilities. There was electricity and water. I never asked what happened to the sewage but in that community a well-developed sense of smell was not an asset.

There are a couple of verses in Matthew that always jar when I hear them. They are the ones that go, “whoever has will be given more . . . . whoever does not have, even that which he has will be taken away from him.” Jesus was not talking about worldly possessions but those verses came to mind each morning when I left my trailer and travelled to work. The gulf between those who had and those who had not was so embarrassingly evident.

The people of that country elected a new government almost ten years ago. So far, the gulf between rich and poor has not been removed. Still, I remain hopeful. During my adult life I have watched as an island country in Asia with no natural resources but a hard working and educated people became a commercial powerhouse. There is no reason why oil wealth should not be used to help nations closer to home follow that path.

I took the photograph above one afternoon when college students were on their way home. These are the future of that country. I am always nervous when taking street photographs. There are photographers who seem to merge with the crowd. I always feel that everyone is looking at me. I am tensed for that angry shout. That shout has not come yet and when I look at the images nobody is looking at the camera. Maybe I am invisible after all.

Watching politicians at work

I have been watching the progress of the presidential hopefuls as they move from state to state and try to respond to questions without really saying anything. Questions about health care particularly interest me. I do not agree totally with Mayor Giuliani’s recent comment that our system is “the best in the world”. I think he forgot to add, “if you can afford it”. Governor Romney also proposed revisions to the health insurance market. He suggested his government will introduce a form of universal insurance similar to his plan in Massachusetts. I do not know the details of that system but I recognize that competition and market pressure work wonders for efficiency. Even so, I am not sure I really want my illness treated by the lowest bidder.

I am more saddened by the candidates’ answers to questions of pro-choice. Most profess concern for the life of an unborn fetus - and stop there. Their concern seems to end once a child is born. Have candidates ever talked about care for unborn children not in danger of abortion? The Center for Disease Control website states that in 1998 the United States ranked 28th in the world in infant mortality. That’s bad! In 2006, CNN reported that we have the second-worst newborn mortality rate in the developed world. We managed to do better than Latvia to avoid last place. Why don’t candidates comment about these deaths as well as those of the unborn? CNN also notes that we have more neonatologists and neonatal intensive care beds per person than other developed countries. This fact is in line with Mayor Giuliani’s comment about our great health system. However, it seems this wonderful system is not working for the children who need it.

I have been blessed with a wonderful grandson. That’s us exploring. As I watch him grow from an infant to a toddler and now to a “little boy” I give thanks that he has access to good health care. I also pray for the millions of grandchildren who do not have that "luxury". Health costs are reported to be one of the major reasons for bankruptcy in US. They are also reported to contribute to stress, debt, impoverishment and loss of homes. I am sure those stresses also contribute to the break-up of families. I admit that State health care my not be the “best in the world”. However, when my children were tiny and we lived in Europe we did not worry about the costs of pre-natal examinations, delivery or visits to the doctor when they suffered childhood illness. State health systems can work and access for all children should not be a “luxury”.

I consider myself to be a Christian. I believe that the Bible means what it says. I suppose that also makes me a fundamentalist. In my Bible James, who was a very practical and plain spoken Christian wrote,

“If a brother or sister be naked, and destitute of daily food, and one of you say unto them, ‘Depart in peace, be ye warmed and filled’; notwithstanding ye give them not those things which are needful to the body; what doth it profit? Even so faith, if it hath not works, is dead, being alone.”

I don’t think it is too much of a stretch to apply this concept of “put your money where your mouth is” to our health system. What use is any candidate who gives the “correct” answers about the unborn fetus if they have no thought - or plans - for the health care needs of the child and mother once the baby is born?